Trump is Right (No Pun Here)

I am with Donald Trump on the Ukraine issue.

The West cannot win this war. Europe is an ailing military power. The EU is high on rabble and low on military power, not withstanding the exalted claims of the UK, France (both nuke powers), and Germany. The Ukraine conflict has laid bare the military vulnerability of the EU: no large arsenals and certainly none of the much-vaunted tide-turning cutting edge technology on display.

The EU, especially the larger economies of the UK, France, and Germany, in an economic shithole. They are nothing more than glorified Middle Powers, like Iran, albeit with better technology and clout. But that's about it.

The EU cannot win the war in Ukraine against the Russians. Putin may be alone, but he sure weighs heavily on the minds of the liberal establishments in most of the EU nations.

The biggest threat the world faces, which the Russophobic-EU ignores, is the rise of a militaristic China.

China represents the single biggest threat to the U.S., India, the EU, and most of the southeast Asian nations.

If the U.S. gets out of the Ukraine quagmire, it can focus on countering China, which today is hellbent on owning not just the South China Sea but the Pacific Ocean as well.

Compared with the military threat from China, Russia is small change. The sooner the Russophobic-West, especially the EU, realizes this uncomfortable truth, the better will the chances of the anti-China brigade, including the U.S. and India, in countering the rising dangers of an aggressive and militaristic China.

The Explainer - The Citizenship Amendment Act

 The Citizenship Amendment Act will be implemented before the Lok Sabha elections take place in May this year.

 Ever since it was brought out in 2019, the CAA has become a become a rallying point for the BJP's detractors across the political and non-political spectrum. 

The liberal cabal, also called the ‘secular brigade’, has accused the Modi Government of seeking to disenfranchise the Indian Muslims through the CAA. 

 Is this accusation true?

Highlights of the CAA

I have compiled the most important provisions of the Citizenship Amendment Act, 2019, which is an act further to amend the Citizenship Act, 1955. 

• Persons belonging to the religious minorities of Hinduism (Hindu), Jainism (Jain), Sikhism (Sikh), Buddhism (Buddhist), Zoroastrianism (Parsi), and Christianity (Christian) in the Islamic nations of Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Bangladesh and who entered India on or before 31 December 2014 will not be treated as illegal migrants.
  
  
• Such persons shall be deemed to be citizens of India from the date of their entry into India.
   
• Under the Citizenship Act, 1955, the most important requirement for citizenship by naturalization is that the applicant must have resided in India during the last 12 months, and for 11 years of the previous 14 years. The CAA relaxes this 11-year requirement to six years for persons belonging to the above-mentioned religions and the three countries.

As you see, there is nothing anti-Muslim here. Also, it has nothing to do with Indian citizens.

A Muslim from any country, including from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, can apply for Indian citizenship. However, she will have to come through the normal process, and not through the expedited process that will be available to non-Muslims from these countries.

The three countries of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Pakistan have been explicitly mentioned because they are avowedly Muslim, with Islam as the state religion. It is an open secret that the persons from the religious minorities (Hindu, Christian, Jain, Buddhist, and Parsi) are greatly discriminated against, persecuted in every way possible, and denied basic freedoms.

In these three Islamic nations, forced conversions to Islam are an ugly fact of life while blasphemy laws are routinely used to harass and intimidate religious minorities in these countries.

At the time the CAA was passed, the BJP has been greatly lacking in ‘communication’. The party has several effective public speakers, yet they failed miserably in communicating to the Indian public, especially Muslims, that the CAA has nothing to do with Indian citizens.

This time around, the BJP has mounted an aggressive campaign to drive home the precise point that Indian Muslims have nothing to fear from the CAA. 

The Yom Kippur War of 1973 - A Quick Note

The fourth and last Quick Note focuses on the Yom Kippur War of 1973 (the Fourth Arab-Israeli War). As mentioned earlier, the Quick Notes series reflects, for the sake of brevity, an 'overview' of this most significant West Asian conflict.

When: 6–25 October 1973

What happened: Coalition of Arab Muslim nations, led by Egypt & Syria launched attack on Israel on the Yom Kippur holy day (6 October); Israel beat back the invasion. Israel reached within 100 km of Egyptian capital, Cairo, and within 32 km of Syrian capital, Damascus.

Outcomes: 
(a) Israel, though victorious, chose to take the diplomacy route to build lasting peace with the Arab Muslim states in its neighbourhood.

(b) Israel and Egypt signed the Camp David Accords in 1978 and later the 1979 Egyptian–Israeli peace treaty, which led to significant outcomes: Egypt became the first Muslim nation to recognize the State of Israel while Israel relinquished its occupation of the Sinai Peninsula which it taken in the 1967 Six–Day War.

 

The Six-Day War (Third Arab–Israeli War) - A Quick Note

The third Quick Note  focuses on the Six-Day War, also called the Third Arab–Israeli War. As mentioned earlier, the Quick Notes series reflects, for the sake of brevity, an 'overview' of this most significant West Asian conflict.

When: 5–10 June 1967

What happened: Coalition of Arab Muslim nations, comprising Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Iraq attacked Israel; however, Israel trounced the Arab Muslim nations by occupying the following: Golan Heights (from Syria), West Bank & East Jerusalem (from Jordan), Gaza Strip and Sinai Peninsula (from Egypt).

Outcomes: 
(a) The myth of the Arab Muslim unity was forever broken.

(b) Around 21,000 Arab Muslims and 1,000 Israelis were killed in the war.

(c) Egypt closed the Suez Canal till 1975. This blockade led to a disruption in oil and gas supply, leading to the energy crisis, including the Oil Shock of 1973.

(Map from here)

The Second Arab–Israeli War (Suez Crisis) - A Quick Note

The second Quick Note focuses on the Second Arab–Israeli War (also called the Suez Crisis). As mentioned earlier, the Quick Notes series reflects, for the sake of brevity, an 'overview' of this most significant West Asian conflict.

(Strait is a narrow channel of water that separates two land bodies; example: Palk Strait separates India and Sri Lanka.)

When: 29 October 1956–7 November 1956

What happened: Egypt nationalized the Suez Canal in 1956; the United Kingdom and France encouraged Israel to attack Egypt to regain control of the important waterway. Israel’s main goal was to reopen the blocked Straits of Tiran, which was strategically important for it. Israel attacked and occupied the Gaza Strip and Sinai Peninsula, both belonging to Egypt.

Outcomes: 
(a) Under intense pressure from the United States, the Soviet Union, and the United Nations, the United Kingdom and France retreated from the war.

(b) Israel scored an important strategic victory as it lifted the blockade to the Straits of Tiran. 

(Map from here)

The First Arab–Israeli War of 1948 - A Quick Note

In a series of four Quick Notes, I will bring to you the major wars fought between Israel and the Arab Muslim World. It is always difficult to simplify very complex issues like the Israel–Palestine conflict. However, the Quick Notes series reflects, for the sake of brevity, an 'overview' of this most significant West Asian conflict. 

In 1947, the UN Partition Plan delineated the formation of two states: an independent Arab State and a separate Jewish State. 

When: 15 May 1948–10 March 1949

What happened:
Israel declared the formation of the world's first Jewish State on 14 May 1948.

The next day, a coalition of Arab Muslim nations, comprising Egypt, Palestinian Protectorate, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Transjordan, and Yemen invaded the newly formed Jewish State with the avowed aim of expelling the Jews and destroying the State of Israel.

Outcomes:
(a) Israel defeated the coalition of Arab Muslim nations, expanded its territory by 60% by capturing the territory given to Palestine under the 1947 UN Partition Plan.

(b) The 1949 Armistice Agreements, which established the armistice lines between Israel and its neighbours, also known as the Green Line, was signed (see the map).

(c) Egypt occupied the Gaza Strip while Jordan occupied the West Bank and East Jerusalem. 

The Arab Muslim nations failed utterly in achieving their goals. To their misery, they lost 60% of the land allotted to Palestine under the UN Partition Plan to Israel.

The reader should note that this massive defeat did help bring the Arab Muslim nations together under the banner of Pan-Arabism.  

Also, it was the Arab Muslim nations which occupied the three territories (Egypt, West Bank, and East Jerusalem) which make up today's Palestine.

(Map from here)

If Hamas Goes, Iran will be the 'Biggest Loser'

Israel's aerial blitzkrieg against Hamas is unrelenting even as it is getting ready to launch a full-scale ground assault in Gaza with a single goal: put Hamas out of existence by taking out its top leadership and destroying its massive arms and ammunition. 

If Hamas Goes, Iran will Lose Big Time
I believe that the biggest loser in the current West Asian situation is Iran. The daily threats and warnings emanating from Tehran mean nothing; the Clerics in Tehran may threaten Israel with doomsday rhetoric – but it is just that.

Tehran will not participate directly in the ongoing Israel–Hamas War. Tehran is beset by several handicaps: an economy in doldrums, widespread prevalence of unemployment, especially among the youth, rising domestic dissent for funding various actors in Syria (President Bashar Al-Assad), Iraq (a Shia dominant country and purportedly a playground for Iran’s strategic play), Lebanon (Hezbollah), Yemen (Houthi), and Palestine (Hamas).

Iran hates Israel more than it loves Hamas. For Tehran, Hamas is just a shoulder from which it fires at its archenemy Israel. However, if Israel takes down the top leadership of Hamas and destroys its sizeable weapons arsenal in the Gaza Strip, Iran may lose its political and military influence in Palestine and its voice in advocating the Palestinian cause in the wider Islamic world.

Tehran’s most powerful external militia arm is Hezbollah. Though militarily powerful, Hezbollah’s home country, Lebanon, is in political and economic ruin. If Hezbollah launches a full-scale attack against Israel, it may stretch the Israeli military on two fronts—along the Gaza Strip and the Lebanese border—but this will invite a heavy reprisal from Israel. There is a great deal of anger among the beleaguered Lebanese against any military action by Hezbollah against Israel. To me, two things confirm the idea that Hezbollah looks like it is paying attention to the ground situation in its home country: it has launched very few rockets against Israeli targets and the top leadership of Hezbollah, led by Hassan Nasrallah, has been eerily silent ever since the Israel–Hamas war broke out.

(To be concluded.)